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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 48

Cleveland Browns 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(3:29) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 28 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.56 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model