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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 71

Denver Broncos 10 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:11) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 34 for 4 yards (51-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.50 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 71, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 29, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model