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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 20 at the 54

Buffalo Bills 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 34

What Actually Happened

(:46) (Shotgun) 3-E.Manuel pass incomplete deep right to 10-R.Woods [95-W.Gilberry]. Overthrown, receiver along sideline at CIN 27.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.50 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 54, worth -0.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model