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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 21

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 2-M.Nugent 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.71 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model