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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 76

Buffalo Bills 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to CIN 29, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-B.Tate to CIN 34 for 5 yards (91-M.Lawson).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model