4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to CIN 14, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 24-A.Jones to CIN 22 for 8 yards (65-G.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.35 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model