4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 29

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 2-M.Nugent 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.14 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP