Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 76

Buffalo Bills 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to CIN 31, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 24-A.Jones to CIN 49 for 18 yards (91-M.Lawson; 36-J.Meeks). PENALTY on BUF-88-M.Goodwin, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CIN 49.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.82 EP
56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model