Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Washington Commanders 0

(4:11) 5-M.Bosher punts 51 yards to WAS 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 33 for 10 yards (42-P.DiMarco).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model