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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 56

Washington Commanders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to ATL 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-47-Q.Dunbar.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.56 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model