4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 10

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.83 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 10, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model