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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 40

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:40) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones to WAS 31 for 9 yards (94-P.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.58 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model