Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 82

Washington Commanders 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to ATL 32, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-E.Weems to ATL 40 for 8 yards (94-P.Smith). PENALTY on WAS-22-D.Everett, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.74 EP
53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 82, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model