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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 74

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 9-J.Ryan punts 51 yards to CIN 23, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 24-A.Jones. PENALTY on CIN-24-A.Jones, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.55 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model