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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 62

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 9-J.Ryan punts 50 yards to CIN 12, Center-49-C.Gresham. 19-B.Tate to CIN 29 for 17 yards (33-K.McCray).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.95 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP