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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 78

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 9-J.Ryan punts 46 yards to CIN 32, Center-49-C.Gresham. 24-A.Jones to SEA 33 for 35 yards (9-J.Ryan).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.84 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model