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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 71

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(:25) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to SEA 20, Center-46-C.Harris. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 16 for -4 yards (81-T.Kroft).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 29, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model