Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 87

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 9-J.Ryan punts 56 yards to CIN 31, Center-49-C.Gresham. 24-A.Jones to CIN 46 for 15 yards (46-W.Tukuafu). PENALTY on CIN-47-P.Dawson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 43. Jones creditied with a 12 yard return.

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.74 EP
65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 87, worth -5.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model