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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 81

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to SEA 31, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.19 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 81, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 38, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model