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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 22

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 2-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.89 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model