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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 58

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to LAC 5, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-35-R.Ventrone.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.78 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model