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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to LAC 4, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-35-R.Ventrone.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.41 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP