Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 85

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 5-M.Scifres punts 55 yards to PIT 30, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 36 for 6 yards (48-N.Dzubnar). PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.55 EP
70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model