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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 29

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.46 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model