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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 44

Denver Broncos 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.00 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -1.56 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP