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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 19 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(2:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 45-M.Reece to DEN 47 for 4 yards (25-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.95 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP