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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 69-K.Barnes reported in as eligible. 49-J.Olawale up the middle to LV 34 for 5 yards (25-C.Harris; 59-D.Trevathan).

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 29, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model