Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 9

(4:14) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to DEN 15, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model