Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(11:17) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to DEN 12, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.18 EP
74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model