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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 34

Denver Broncos 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.07 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model