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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 7-M.King punts 61 yards to DEN 5, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 9 for 4 yards (58-N.Ball).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.16 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model