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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 5

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Cleveland Browns 30

What Actually Happened

(:29) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.77 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 5, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model