4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 33

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.37 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model