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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 25

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 6-T.Coons 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.03 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model