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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 47

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 8-A.Lee punts 38 yards to BAL 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-47-C.Hughlett. PENALTY on CLE-82-G.Barnidge, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.85 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model