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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 92

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:32) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to CLE 41, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.22 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 92, worth -5.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 50, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model