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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(12:54) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.44 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 23, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model