Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 83

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(14:31) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 46 yards to BAL 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-J.Ross to CLE 46 for 17 yards (84-R.Housler). PENALTY on BAL-25-T.Walker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 41.

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.15 EP
55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 83, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model