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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 26

Chicago Bears 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(:58) 9-R.Gould 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-T.Gafford, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.60 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model