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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to CHI 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 35 for 18 yards (30-J.Fleming). PENALTY on CHI-33-J.Langford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 19.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 29, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP