Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 54

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Chicago Bears 6

(7:58) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to CHI 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.64 EP
64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -2.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model