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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 43

Chicago Bears 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(9:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete short right to 80-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.16 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model