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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 70

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to CHI 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-M.Mariani to CHI 38 for 13 yards (30-J.Fleming).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.92 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 28, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model