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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 9

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-P.McPhee), Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt, recovered by KC-42-A.Sherman at CHI 15. 42-A.Sherman to CHI 15 for no gain (90-J.Ratliff).

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.26 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 9, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model