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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 72

Chicago Bears 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to KC 23, Center-43-T.Gafford. 13-D.Thomas pushed ob at KC 27 for 4 yards. PENALTY on KC-39-H.Abdullah, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 27.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP