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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(14:57) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to CHI 5, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.55 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 60, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 19, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model