Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 92

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:58) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to TEN 43, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 45 for 2 yards (20-C.Graham). PENALTY on TEN-28-M.Huff, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 45.

The Three Options

GO -3.71 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.28 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 92, worth -5.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model