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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 68

Buffalo Bills 14 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to TEN 22, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 31 for 9 yards (20-C.Graham).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.57 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 68, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model