Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 13 – Buffalo Bills 14

(3:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to BUF 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 17-D.Moore pushed ob at BUF 36 for 13 yards (25-B.Wreh-Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.54 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -2.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model