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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 23

Tennessee Titans 10 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(9:41) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.41 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 23, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP